Scouts always have to make lists this early in the season, but they hate doing it. Usually by early December, they wish they could burn their September list. So take this pre-season look at WHL and western Jr. A draft prospects with the understanding that it will change dramatically once the real games start.
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Elites/Top-Ten Contenders
(1 to 10 overall range)
Jared Cowen, D, Spokane: Probably a top five player on the majority of NHL scouts' lists as of now. He's got the complete package you look for in a top-pairing blueliner. Not a high risk player, so it's hard to imagine him dropping much by June. But a Braydon Coburn-like mini-slide to something like #8 overall isn't impossible. Partly depends upon how he plays, of course - but other players could pass him up too. Could he challenge for #1 overall? Maybe - but it seems unlikely he could pass Victor Hedman at this point.
Brayden Schenn, C, Brandon: Also probably a top-fiver on most scouts lists. Plays so much bigger than his size that you don't worry about him only being 6-foot-0. There's some slightly high expectations on him because of how good he was last year. But the fact that he's one of the youngest players in this draft crop is a plus in scouts' minds. Hard to imagine how Schenn could drop out of the top ten.
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First-Round Contenders
(11 to 40-ish overall)
Evander Kane, C, Vancouver: Might be the best pure sniper from the west in this year's draft. I'm mildly concerned about his skating, but if he produces this season like he can, it won't drop him out of the first round.
Tomas Vincour, RW, Edmonton: Big, a bit raw, but can be dazzling at times. These kind of enigmatic players can be scary for scouts. Skating improved a lot last year. Now if he can find some consistency and grit, he could solidify a spot in the first round for himself.
Stefan Elliott, D, Saskatoon: Fair amount of disagreement among NHL scouts on this guy. He's in my first round, some guys don't even like him in the first two rounds. Skating is the concern here, but offensive ability is superb.
Nathan Lieuwen, G, Kootenay: Is an early riser after his performance in the U-18. Needs to steal some time away from whoever is the #1 (probably Heemskerk).
Scott Glennie, RW, Brandon: I really like this player, but a lot of scouts question if he just leeched off Schenn all year. I think he does enough on his own to be a legitimate late first rounder at this point.
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Early Rounders
(40-ish to about 90)
Garrett Mitchell, RW, Regina: One of those guys you want to see succeed. Not much raw talent, but does he give you everything he can every shift. Second rounder just on heart alone. But he'll have to show he can produce even just a little bit.
Jimmy Bubnick, RW, Kamloops: Wait-and-see player for me. Lots of raw ability, but has to put it together. Skating is a bit of a problem.
Collin Bowman, D, Kelowna: Great improvement over the course of last season. That plus the fact that his brother was a late bloomer might bode well for further upside this year. Might not get as much key ice time as he would otherwise deserve on that deep Rockets blueline.
Cody Eakin, C, Swift Current: Great second half and a ton of skill. A concussion cost him most of the first half last year, so he'll need to stay healthy this year.
Sena Acolatse, D, Seattle: Has been greater than the sum of his parts so far in his career. But he's a bit like Tyler Schmidt last year - hard to project as a pro. But he drops the gloves a lot more than Schmidt does, so that's a big plus and makes him an early rounder at this point.
Stepan Novotny, RW, Kelowna: Haven't seen yet, has seen him and likes him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder at this point.
Levko Koper, LW, Spokane: If he keeps up how he played in the playoffs and the Memorial Cup, he could be a riser. For now, I like his smarts and hands well enough to have him close to the 2nd round.
Tyson Barrie, D, Kelowna: Already getting into arguments about him. Some scouts don't care for him, really questioning his defensive zone play. I tend to see a poor man's Thomas Hickey.
Dylan Olsen, D, Camrose AJHL: Big with a lot of raw offensive ability from the back end. Might end up being a hard player to read. Would like him better if his skating were better.
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"Almost" Early Rounders/Sleepers
(4th round and later players, but with a good chance to move up)
Landon Ferraro, C, Red Deer: Big disappointment for scouts so far, but will be watched closely.
Carter Ashton, RW, Lethbridge: Didn't show scouts much last year, but has enough raw ability to be a draw for scouts.
Brayden McNabb, D, Kootenay: Kind of grows on you the more you see him. Needs to show just a little something more (either toughness or puck ability) this season to move up lists.
Jamies Priestner, G, Kamloops: Like his raw athleticism and quickness.
Ryan Howse, LW, Chilliwack: Has the hands, but needs to be willing to work hard and pay the price to score.
Adam Hughesman, RW, Tri-City: Good production last year and has good hands. But I'd like to see a smallish player skate better than he does.
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Some Interest, But...
(players I hope show me something this year)
Jeff Regier, D, Everett: Definitely not the sum of his parts yet. Very surprised he didn't contribute more offensively, so he might be set for a breakout year. Like how well he did in some of his fights, though.
Cam Reid, C, Victoria BCHL: Best of the lot in a down year for BCHL prospects so far. But there are always some no-names from the BC league who make names for themselves on scouts' lists during the season.
Evan Bloodoff, LW, Kelowna: Another reason the Rockets will be a popular team for scouts to see. Like his speed and effort level.
Jeremy Boyer, C, Seattle: Good offensive instincts, but I wish he skater better for such a smallish player.
Tristan King, C, Medicine Hat: Good hands and smarts, but needs to be less of a perimetre player.
Justin Maylan, C, Prince George: Quietly had a good second half. Good hands and smarts.
Chase Schaber, C, Calgary: Really impressed my boss at the U-17 last year, but I need to see some production out of his this year.
James Henry, LW, Vancouver: Fun to watch and is going to be a terrific junior player. But as a pro prospect? Not so sure yet.
Wes McLeod, D, Penticton BCHL: Raw blueliner has some skill and will be a target for scouts.
Corey Tyrell, LW, Prince George: Maybe it's because I liked his brother so much, but I expected more from him last season. Still will be watched closely.
Neil Manning, D, Vancouver: Another guy I expected a lot from. Lots of raw ability, but needs to put at least a little bit of it together.
Brett Ponich, D, Portland: Will be watched if only for the size. Went from okay to awful to not-so-bad last season. Will the real Brett Ponich stand up this season?
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That's the end of this early preview. But it's worth noting there's lots of other names on the radar not mentioned here. We've had enough time on the golf course this summer; let the games begin.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
2008 Wrap - Tier II
Junior A / Tier IIBCHL
Zac Dalpe/Penticton: I think he goes in the last half of the first round, although I know I'm higher on him than the consensus of NHL scouts. Could slide out of the 1st, but I think he'd get snapped up in the first few picks of the 2nd if he does.
Justin Schultz/Westside: There are some NHL teams that are seriously overrating this guy. I have this nagging thought in the back of my mind that some team could shock everyone and grab this guy in the late 1st round. Otherwise, my bet is he's sure to go in the 2nd.
Derek Grant/Langley: A bit of a wildcard. Some NHL team might overlook the somewhat soft play and really like his hands and skating stride. I think 2nd round is unlikely but not totally out of the question. Otherwise I think 3rd or 4th round is most likely.
Rich Manley/Burnaby: Wildcard for me, especially since I only got to see him once. Big bodies that move this well can tend to sneak up on draft day, but my guess at best case for him is no higher than the 3rd.
Taylor Stefishen/Langley: Came into the season as the top BCHL pro prospect, but got passed up by a bunch of guys. Still has a ton of creative skill, so he'll go somewhere. I think he slides a little bit and could be a middle or late rounder.
Eric Filiou/Nanaimo: Might be a player than only I like, but if some NHL team sees him as I do, he'll be a pick anywhere after the 5th round.
Brodie Reid/Burnaby: Big breakout season for the '89 winger, so he could go with a late pick.
Others: Salmon Arm C Derek Lee probably has a decent chance of getting his name called. He'd be higher if he handled the physical game a bit better at his size. Salmon Arm D Damon Kipp is a personal favourite of mine, but he may not be on any team's list. Same goes for Penticton C Denver Manderson, so he's unlikely to go. Smallish Vernon F Kellen Jones had an outstanding season and might have an outside chance at going. Nanaimo's undrafted '89 LW Russell Goodman showed up on Central's list again, but I doubt he showed enough improvement in his skating or overall game to end up being picked.
Looking Ahead to 2009: There are no real standouts for next year yet, but there are always several surprises emerging from the BCHL. Westside G Nathan Leiuwen will probably be headed to the WHL with Kootenay, but if he spends another year in Westbank, he'll be the clear cut top NHL prospect in the BCHL next year. Another player to watch is Victoria F Cam Reid. Prince George G Damien Ketlo will try to earn a spot in the WHL with the Regina Pats and will be on the radar for NHL scouts wherever he plays.
AJHLJoe Colborne/Camrose: Certain first rounder, and probably right in the middle near the 15th pick. I'm hearing there may be a team or two drafting near the end of the first that are trying to move up to pick him. In any case, it seems unlikely he slide lower than the 16th-18th overall range.
Tyler Gron/Fort McMurray: Passed on in last year's draft, but was one of the youngest players eligible last year. Not on my list, but Central probably isn't alone in having him on their list. Could be a late rounder.
Mike Connolly/Camrose: A favourite of the Red Line staff, and I don't think we're alone. Guys with a lot of heart are just the kind of player NHL scouts like to reward with a late round pick, even if they don't think he's much of a pro prospect. I think he might go in the last couple rounds, but it won't shock me if he does go at all.
Andrew Macwilliam/Camrose: I think NHL scouts are manufacturing a player if they think he's worth a pick, but I know there are teams with him on their list. Could go in the last few rounds.
Others: Spruce Grove D Kevin Connauton has decent size and brings some offense and from the blueline, so he could go in the last half of the draft. F Shawn Ostrow is another Camrose player who got lots of exposure, and his production this year may be enough for him to be a late pick. St. Albert RW Bryce Williamson, Calgary Canucks D Kodie Curran, Drayton Valley F Andrew Cherniwchan, and Bonnyville D Steven Seigo could get a look from some team.
Looking Ahead to 2009: Camrose D Dylan Olsen is already in my 2nd round, and he has a ton of upside. He might be the best Jr. A prospect in western Canada heading into next season. Sherwood Park D Rory Connop will be on the radar, if only because of his massive size.
SJHLThe SJHL may have produced the Junior A champion, but as usual, they'll be lucky to produce many NHL picks. Notre Dame C Rylan Schwartz is the league's best shot at a pick. He's headed for Colorado College and has a fair amount of skill despite his smallish size.
Besides Schwartz, there isn't much to get exicted about. Weyburn D Stephen Simms, Melfort D Tommy Brown, and Notre Dame F Travis Janke were the only other players that even looked somewhat interesting in my book.
MJHLAnother bleak year in the often-bleak Manitoba league. There's no real likely picks. Winnipeg South Blues D Andrew Hewett and Selkirk D Darren Bestland both offer quite a bit of toughness, and might be the MJHL's best chance at having a player or two drafted. Swan Valley F Stephan Vigier can put up the points, but is very smallish. Winkler D Caleb Suderman is an '89 that could also draw some interest. And Beausejour D Derek Robinson might have impressed somebody at the Jr. A Challenge enough to be a on a list, but I doubt it.
2008 Wrap - Everett
Everett SilvertipsKyle Beach: Is the only certain draft pick on the 'Tips roster. I'm hearing a lot of buzz that there are quite a few teams looking to move up to grab Beach. Look for him to go between 5-10 overall, and probably to a team that trades up for a pick. I don't see any way he can go higher than 5, and it will be a real surprise if he slides lower than about 15 overall.
Jordan Mistelbacher: Intriguing combination of hands and competitiveness, but he never played real well for me. I think there's a good chance he'll go in the second half of the draft.
Zack Dailey: I absolutely love the way he thinks and plays the game - the kind of player coaches love to have. Problem is, he just doesn't have the size or skill level to be much of a pro prospect. Could get a late round call if some team sees him as a potential AHL captain.
Others: Lots of first year eligible players on this team, but not many beyond Beach and Mistelbacher are drawing much interest from NHL scouts. Shane Barrie played pretty well for me at times, but probably didn't get enough exposure to show up on any NHL lists. Matt Ius has some size and toughness, but might not offer enough in other areas to be worth a pick. Chris de la Lande, Tyler Eskesen and Tyler Skauge look like they could be solid junior players, but aren't probable drafts. Massive Brenden Stephen got a cup of coffee late in the season, but he'd have to wait until next year at best. And undrafted '89 Shane Harper has turned himself into a very good junior player, but I'm not sure he's quite enough to be a pick.
Looking Ahead to 2009: Jeff Regier has a good stride and some puck carrying ability, but I'm already wondering about the lack of production. Can also throw 'em pretty well in a fight, so I'd like to see him drop the gloves some more next season.
2008 Wrap - Portland
Portland Winter HawksKurtis Mucha: The Hawks' best chance at having a player picked is actually their already once-undrafted goaltender. I know he was on some teams lists last year, so he barely missed out on being drafted. Same is true again this year, so he could get called with a late pick, or get passed on again. If he doesn't go, he's got a chance at getting a camp invite.
Colin Reddin: On the Red Line Report list more for what he did as a 16-year old last season with the US U-17 Team than anything he did this year. Has a some untapped offensive ability but he struggled to adjust to the WHL. Could be a late pick if there's an NHL guy who remembered what he looked like two years ago, but there's a good chance he'll go undrafted.
Others: Best chance for any other player to go besides Mucha and Reddin might be puck moving '89 blueliner Travis Ehrhardt, but he wasn't that much better this year than last and went undrafted in '07. Bo Montgomery was watched closely by scouts this season, but he just hasn't developed much. Luke Walker has a decent touch around the net, but is a long ways from being a pro prospect. Travis Bobbee has some natural talent, but he's never been able to put it together in the WHL. Jason Grecica and Philip Gervais work hard, but aren't likely to go. And no one got to see Brock Cornish is his draft year, so he'll have to wait until next year.
Looking Ahead to 2009: Brett Ponich has the body and raw ability to draw a lot of interest. He might be somewhere around the 3rd round right now, but he showed enough improvement last season that he could be a riser. Riley Boychuk missed a critical year of development, but has the size and hands that scouts will watch closely.
2008 Wrap - Seattle
Seattle ThunderbirdsJacob DeSerres: Should be the second or third WHL goaltender to go. Have heard late rumblings that he could go surprisingly high, which would mean early 2nd round to me. Otherwise, I'd guess he'll probably go in the 3rd, maybe 4th round at latest.
Prab Rai: Probably the only other Seattle player with much of a chance to go. Two-way ability plus his good speed might make him worth a pick in the last few rounds.
Others: Isak Quakenbush probably would have needed to drop the gloves a lot more to draw any interest. Brad Haber was probably hard to see for most scouts and isn't likely to go.
Looking Ahead to 2009: The 'Birds have lots of first year eligibles next year and will be a big draw for scouts next season. Sena Acolatse gets the most attention for now, since he's already played two full seasons and has terrific strength. Has already shown enough puck skill to be a 2nd rounder at this point and he could be a riser next year. Jeremy Boyer has an excellent shooting touch and could be an early round candidate if his skating improves a bit. Brenden Dillon and Steve Chaffin are a pair of bookend d-men have just enough raw ability and size to be interesting. They would be middle rounders at best right now, but will be watched closely. Brenden Silvester is speedy and competes, he's at least on the radar. And Charles Wells has a fair bit of skill and looks like he could turn into a good junior player.
2008 Wrap - Spokane
Spokane ChiefsAbsolutely frightening for the rest of the league how young this Memorial Cup championship team is. They're certain to have at least two players go in Ottawa, and there's an outside chance they could have as many as six picks.
Mitch Wahl: NHL clubs have concerns about his willingness to take a hit, but this kind of high end playmaking and creativity won't slide far. Some chance he goes in the last few picks of the 1st round, but somewhere in the middle of the 2nd is more likely.
Trevor Glass: Had the well-rounded '88 blueliner on my list two years ago and still think he'd be worth a pick somewhere. Has underrated hockey sense and enough skill to chip in offensively. My gut says there's got to be at least one NHL team that agrees and will finally spend a pick on him.
Dustin Tokarski: Could sneak into the middle or back end of the 2nd round, but I think he's a good bet for the 3rd or 4th round.
Mike Reddington: NHL scouts tend not to like six-foot stay at home defencemen, but he's so solid in his own zone that I think he'll go somewhere. Probably in the last few rounds.
Jared Spurgeon: Classic example of just how much the draft has changed in the last ten years. A decade ago he would not have even be considered. Now, NHL teams are looking for puck moving ability from the blueline, no matter what the player's size. I don't think he'd go before about the 5th round, but I think he's got a good chance of getting picked somewhere.
Tyler Johnson: Same story about how the draft has changed applies here as well. Has a decent chance of being a late pick.
Others: Brett Bartman showed somebody at Central enough to be a list in their mid-season rankings, but I'm not sure he would have made any NHL team's list. Jace Coyle is the other first year eligible, but isn't a likely draft.
Looking Ahead to 2009: How much do the NHL guys love Jared Cowen already? Well, he'd almost certainly be the first WHL player picked if he were available for this year's draft. He'd probably be included in the "big three" (I guess that would make it the "big four") Ontario d-men eligible this year. Levko Koper always drew interest because of his shooting touch, but his outstanding two-way play in the playoffs vaulted him into the 2nd round on my list. Lots of upside for him. Stefan Ulmer also looks solid, but will have to do a bit more on the offensive end to overcome concerns about his size.
2008 Wrap - Tri-City
Tri-City AmericansRare to see a team with only one NHL drafted player (T.J. Fast) be such a strong team as they were this season. They'll list a few more NHL picks on the roster next year, as the Ams should see three or four players called in Ottawa.
Chet Pickard: Bob Tory told me way back in September that he thought Pickard would be the top draft eligible goaltender in the WHL this year. (I had Holtby and DeSerres ahead of Pickard at that point). Bob was right. Pickard kept rising on my list all the way through the end. Since goaltender is the only position that NHL teams will draft for organizational need, it makes him a first round wildcard. Don't be shocked if he cracks the top ten. Scouts really think he's not that far behind where Carey Price was in his draft year. I think in the 10-20 overall range is most likely, and I'll be very surprised if he goes lower than 20. It's essentially impossible that he slides out of the first round completely.
Kruise Reddick: Many NHL teams like him much more than I do. So a 2nd or 3rd round selection isn't impossible. Worst case is probably the 4th or 5th round. He's a lock to go somewhere.
Tyler Schmidt: Not a guarantee to go, but might be a target for some teams beginning about the 4th round.
Eric Mestery: Is worth a middle or late gamble pick, but teams may wonder if there's any chance he develops in the next two years, when a team will have to decide whether to sign him or not. Has enough raw ability that I think he won't get completely passed over, but it's hard to guess where he could go. Last few rounds seems most likely to.
Others: Kyle Birch interested me a little bit in the couple times I saw him, but I doubt many NHL guys saw enough of him to show up on any lists. Joel Ridgeway is the Ams other first year eligible. He could end up being a decent junior player, but he's not a draft at this point. I toyed with putting pocket rocket Johnny Lazo on the end of my list at one point, but he just doesn't quite do enough to make up for the size problem. And an unwhelming playoff performance didn't help. Radek Meidl still has one of the most intriguing raw packages of size and skill in the league, but I think he'll get passed over again.
Looking Ahead to 2009: Adam Hughesman has quite a bit of skill and hockey sense, but he might have to improve his skating a bit to be a 1st or 2nd round candidate. Lane Werbowski looked very impressive the first time I saw him, but he's still a bit raw at this point. He will be worth seeing a lot of next season. And Mason Wilgosh plays with a lot of energy, but he might have to produce some points to get consideration from NHL scouts.
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