While Kyle Beach is still a very safe bet to go somewhere in the first 20-25 picks, his stock has really taken a beating among NHL scouts since January.
First it was the second concussion in 5 weeks time that held him out of the Top Prospects Game that put serious concerns into NHL minds. But his play on the ice since that time has sent him into a mini-freefall.
And that's leaving aside the off ice issues that makes him untouchable to many NHL teams. Several NHL scouts have told me directly that their teams will not draft him under any circumstances.
Still, it only takes one gambler of a head scout with lots of job security (think David Conte, among others) with one of the first 30 picks to keep Beach from falling out of the first round.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Thursday, January 24, 2008
What's wrong with Tyler Ennis
Another thought from the TPG last night...
First of all, fans often make too much of how much impact a good or bad Top Prospects Game performance can have on a player's stock. But there can be some important subtle clues that will move a player on teams' lists.
The best case in point from last night's game was Tyler Ennis. By this time in the season, scouts have seen plenty of Ennis and have a good read on what he is. And surely there's a lot to like about his game despite his very smallish size. Even on our rankings, he is knocking on the door of the first round.
But no matter how many of Medicine Hat's regular season games a scout sees this season, he won't get a better chance to evaluate Ennis' ability to beat above-average skating defencemen with his moves than in the Top Prospects Game. No WHL team boasts a one through six defensive corp that can skate like Team Red. So Ennis' agility and speed were put to the toughest test of the season last night.
We've seen Ennis turn plenty of WHL defencemen into pretzels this season - even some of the better defencemen struggle to contain him. But against such mobile blueliners as Del Zotto, Doughty, etc., Ennis really struggled. And these are the type of defencemen that Ennis will have to try beat every shift at the next level, either the AHL or the NHL.
Now it's not such a poor showing that would drop Ennis completely out of the first two rounds. But it's enough of a clue to scouts about his future in pro hockey that NHL teams may drop him a few spots on their lists. And that could be enough to keep him from being a high second round pick (say 30-35) to perhaps later in the 2nd (45-60th overall).
First of all, fans often make too much of how much impact a good or bad Top Prospects Game performance can have on a player's stock. But there can be some important subtle clues that will move a player on teams' lists.
The best case in point from last night's game was Tyler Ennis. By this time in the season, scouts have seen plenty of Ennis and have a good read on what he is. And surely there's a lot to like about his game despite his very smallish size. Even on our rankings, he is knocking on the door of the first round.
But no matter how many of Medicine Hat's regular season games a scout sees this season, he won't get a better chance to evaluate Ennis' ability to beat above-average skating defencemen with his moves than in the Top Prospects Game. No WHL team boasts a one through six defensive corp that can skate like Team Red. So Ennis' agility and speed were put to the toughest test of the season last night.
We've seen Ennis turn plenty of WHL defencemen into pretzels this season - even some of the better defencemen struggle to contain him. But against such mobile blueliners as Del Zotto, Doughty, etc., Ennis really struggled. And these are the type of defencemen that Ennis will have to try beat every shift at the next level, either the AHL or the NHL.
Now it's not such a poor showing that would drop Ennis completely out of the first two rounds. But it's enough of a clue to scouts about his future in pro hockey that NHL teams may drop him a few spots on their lists. And that could be enough to keep him from being a high second round pick (say 30-35) to perhaps later in the 2nd (45-60th overall).
Top Prospects Game Notes
A few random thoughts from last night's TPG here in Edmonton...
Undoubtedly Brandon defenceman Colby Robak will be the biggest riser. He's almost certainly vaulted himself into the first round with his play here last night. After about the fourth terrific tape-to-tape pass from his own end, you could see several scouts turning to look at each other, saying nothing, just raising an eyebrow. That's scouting body language for "wow, does he look good here."
Kelowna defenceman Tyler Myers will also be a riser, but then again, he was probably always going to be a lottery pick just based on his size and skating. But as someone who's seen plenty of Myers' regular season games this year, I can tell you that this was by far the best game Myers has played this season. He kept it simple with the puck and showed a lot more physical ability defending the rush than I've seen from him before.
Guelph defenceman Drew Doughty had the worst game of any of the 40 players. Part of that is how high expectations were on the consensus #2 overall, so perhaps he had more to lose. But I doubt he'll drop very far on many teams' lists. He's the case in point for the claim that a single bad game at the TPG doesn't necessarily kill your status for the draft.
None of the goaltenders looked real impressive, but scouts will discount that a bit as this game was a tough test for all of them. Most striking to me was my first look at Saint John's Swiss netminder, Robert Mayer. There isn't enough mustard in the world to cover that hot dog. Despite an underwhelming game, I came away impressed with his athleticism and condfidence in net.
Other quick notes...
Colten Teubert: couldn't you have had a better game in front of my boss? Now I'm going to have to really argue on your behalf to keep you as high in the rankings as I'd like.
Jyri Niemi: Was slightly worried about his skating before, but now I'm very worried. Those pivots are going to have to improve.
Mikhail Stefanovich: More dynamic and a better playmaker than I expected. Figured him for a solo-effort guy but he was terrific finding teammates on the rush.
Philip McRae: Really strong defensively. A pleasant surprise. But good defensive forwards in junior never turn out to be the big shutdown third liners in the NHL. Look at all the top defensive forwards in the show and you'll see they were big time scorers in junior.
Geordie Wudrick: Nice to see what he looks like with some solid linemates. I know Stamkos can make any winger look good, but Wudrick really showed some good speed and willingness to go to the net.
Jordan Eberle: Could be that only Stamkos has a better shooting touch among these 40 players. If he had picked the corner on that sharp-angle shot in the third (he just missed), that would have been the prettiest goal in the game.
Brandon McMillan: My boss asked me three times why McMillan was here instead of Joel Broda. I still don't have an answer.
Steven Stamkos: My first look. Everything as advertised. Skating is truly spectacular. Can't imagine anyone else is going to steal the #1 overall spot from him.
Drew Doughty: Thicker build than even the 6-0.5/219 stats suggest. Despite an awful time with the puck, was a beast along the boards.
Zach Bogosian: I see what every one is talking about. Every NHL scout I talk to thinks they like him more than everyone else. Which should translate to being the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th overall pick.
Chris Doyle: Can't skate. That's it.
Zach Boychuk: Have been a bit nervous about our ranking him between 10 and 15 on our list all season. Definitely not nervous after last night.
Mitch Wahl: I think I saw him go into the slot once. Which is one time more than I usually see him in WHL games.
Cody Hodgson: One of my new favorites. Just oozes leadership. Think Dave Gagner from last year. Is the guy that will go out of the top 5 that by this time next year several teams drafting ahead of where he goes will have wished they picked him.
Jared Staal: Did not belong in this game. Sometimes your name gets you places you shouldn't be.
Yann Sauve: Surprisingly physical. Excellent strength despite smallish size. Played with a lot of grit.
Michael Del Zotto: Terrific skater. A couple of his early shifts were shaky, but he got better as the game went.
Undoubtedly Brandon defenceman Colby Robak will be the biggest riser. He's almost certainly vaulted himself into the first round with his play here last night. After about the fourth terrific tape-to-tape pass from his own end, you could see several scouts turning to look at each other, saying nothing, just raising an eyebrow. That's scouting body language for "wow, does he look good here."
Kelowna defenceman Tyler Myers will also be a riser, but then again, he was probably always going to be a lottery pick just based on his size and skating. But as someone who's seen plenty of Myers' regular season games this year, I can tell you that this was by far the best game Myers has played this season. He kept it simple with the puck and showed a lot more physical ability defending the rush than I've seen from him before.
Guelph defenceman Drew Doughty had the worst game of any of the 40 players. Part of that is how high expectations were on the consensus #2 overall, so perhaps he had more to lose. But I doubt he'll drop very far on many teams' lists. He's the case in point for the claim that a single bad game at the TPG doesn't necessarily kill your status for the draft.
None of the goaltenders looked real impressive, but scouts will discount that a bit as this game was a tough test for all of them. Most striking to me was my first look at Saint John's Swiss netminder, Robert Mayer. There isn't enough mustard in the world to cover that hot dog. Despite an underwhelming game, I came away impressed with his athleticism and condfidence in net.
Other quick notes...
Colten Teubert: couldn't you have had a better game in front of my boss? Now I'm going to have to really argue on your behalf to keep you as high in the rankings as I'd like.
Jyri Niemi: Was slightly worried about his skating before, but now I'm very worried. Those pivots are going to have to improve.
Mikhail Stefanovich: More dynamic and a better playmaker than I expected. Figured him for a solo-effort guy but he was terrific finding teammates on the rush.
Philip McRae: Really strong defensively. A pleasant surprise. But good defensive forwards in junior never turn out to be the big shutdown third liners in the NHL. Look at all the top defensive forwards in the show and you'll see they were big time scorers in junior.
Geordie Wudrick: Nice to see what he looks like with some solid linemates. I know Stamkos can make any winger look good, but Wudrick really showed some good speed and willingness to go to the net.
Jordan Eberle: Could be that only Stamkos has a better shooting touch among these 40 players. If he had picked the corner on that sharp-angle shot in the third (he just missed), that would have been the prettiest goal in the game.
Brandon McMillan: My boss asked me three times why McMillan was here instead of Joel Broda. I still don't have an answer.
Steven Stamkos: My first look. Everything as advertised. Skating is truly spectacular. Can't imagine anyone else is going to steal the #1 overall spot from him.
Drew Doughty: Thicker build than even the 6-0.5/219 stats suggest. Despite an awful time with the puck, was a beast along the boards.
Zach Bogosian: I see what every one is talking about. Every NHL scout I talk to thinks they like him more than everyone else. Which should translate to being the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th overall pick.
Chris Doyle: Can't skate. That's it.
Zach Boychuk: Have been a bit nervous about our ranking him between 10 and 15 on our list all season. Definitely not nervous after last night.
Mitch Wahl: I think I saw him go into the slot once. Which is one time more than I usually see him in WHL games.
Cody Hodgson: One of my new favorites. Just oozes leadership. Think Dave Gagner from last year. Is the guy that will go out of the top 5 that by this time next year several teams drafting ahead of where he goes will have wished they picked him.
Jared Staal: Did not belong in this game. Sometimes your name gets you places you shouldn't be.
Yann Sauve: Surprisingly physical. Excellent strength despite smallish size. Played with a lot of grit.
Michael Del Zotto: Terrific skater. A couple of his early shifts were shaky, but he got better as the game went.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
2007 Wrap, Part 5 - BCHL
Kyle Turris, Burnaby - Thought I was really sticking my neck out way back in September when I had him in the middle of the first round. So much for that. Franchise centre. Don't worry, he'll fill out enough. I will be stunned if he's not one of the first two picks in the draft.
Riley Nash, Salmon Arm - Big time riser in the second half. Very complete player. Is knocking on the door of the first round.
Casey Pierro-Zabotel, Merritt - Seems like he's always on cruise, and that bothers me. Deadly around the net, however. Wish he used his size more. Very risky pick, but worth a 2nd round gamble.
Russell Goodman, Nanaimo - Good playoff run bumped his stock up a bit. Could be a middle rounder now.
Jamie Benn, Victoria - Has a good shot, but he sits around the slot waiting for his teammates to dig the puck out of the corner. Probably a middle rounder, but not very high on my list.
Chris Rawlings, Powell River - Looked better last season than this. Still worth a late pick.
Justin Courtnall, Burnaby - Okay, the fact Central measured him at 6-3 (he was listed at 6-1 all year) doesn't change much. Yeah, he skates well for his size. But that's about it.
Ben Winnett, Salmon Arm - Don't really like this player. Smallish and soft. But might have enough skill to draw late round interest.
Riley Nash, Salmon Arm - Big time riser in the second half. Very complete player. Is knocking on the door of the first round.
Casey Pierro-Zabotel, Merritt - Seems like he's always on cruise, and that bothers me. Deadly around the net, however. Wish he used his size more. Very risky pick, but worth a 2nd round gamble.
Russell Goodman, Nanaimo - Good playoff run bumped his stock up a bit. Could be a middle rounder now.
Jamie Benn, Victoria - Has a good shot, but he sits around the slot waiting for his teammates to dig the puck out of the corner. Probably a middle rounder, but not very high on my list.
Chris Rawlings, Powell River - Looked better last season than this. Still worth a late pick.
Justin Courtnall, Burnaby - Okay, the fact Central measured him at 6-3 (he was listed at 6-1 all year) doesn't change much. Yeah, he skates well for his size. But that's about it.
Ben Winnett, Salmon Arm - Don't really like this player. Smallish and soft. But might have enough skill to draw late round interest.
2007 Wrap, Part 4 - WHL US
Everett Silvertips
Zach Hamill - I think he goes somewhere between 8-15. Has the raw talent to be top five, but concussion history is enough of a risk to drop him slightly. Head scouts have to account for the injury history - if he gets 1 or 2 more serious concussions, that could be a career killer.
Taylor Ellington - Pure projection. Has a lot of untapped upside. Scouts who have seen him a lot like him. I think several teams think they are the only ones who like his game and are going to steal in the 3rd round. Could go in the second. A wild card.
David Reekie - Okay, yes, he's an '87 goaltender playing behind a good team. But this is not Kelly Guard. He played so good at times this season, he's worth a late pick.
Lukas Vartovnik - High effort, all heart, no fear. Not sure that means you even go in the late rounds, however. Some teams like to take flyers on guys like this, though.
Others: Shane Harper will be a good junior player, but not a draft. Same probably goes Jesse Burt and Mike Alexander.
Portland Winter Hawks
Kurtis Mucha - Got about as close as you can get these days to a Steve Passmore kind of season. And scouts usually like to see goaltenders play a ton. I have a feeling there are a bunch of NHL guys who like him more than they will admit to me. I saw too much of him, so I only see the flaws - somewhat slow glove, so-so footwork. But he should go near the middle of the draft or higher. Outside shot at going as early as the 2nd.
Colton Sceviour - Was terrific the last few weeks of the season, after he returned from the broken foot. Before that, eh, not so much. Played with lots more grit at the end. Skating is still only so-so. Is late riser, but I still think 3rd round is best case for him.
Others: Matt Betker is going to be a good defensive forward in this league, but he's not a draft. Some team may like Lucas Alexiux enough to spend a late pick on him, but I don't see much of a pro prospect.
Seattle Thunderbirds
Thomas Hickey - I hoped for more from Hickey this season. Looked awful in the first half, recovered a bit after Christmas. Outstanding hockey sense, but he didn't rush the puck as much this year. To me, he's not as good as Kris Russell in his draft year, but he has all the same size questions. But Hickey is going to go in the first round, while Russell was a third rounder.
Radek Meidl - Two thoughts come into my head whenever I saw Meidl this season: 1) he looks an awful lot like Marian Hossa or Pavel Brendl, and 2) he sure doesn't play anything like Hossa or Brendl. Looks like one of those enigmatic and intrguiging perennial underachievers to me. He's got some upside, so he's not a bad 3rd or 4th round gamble.
Jan Eberle - Good skater and he competes, but I have hard time getting excited about this one. Plays a no-nonsense style, just goes to the net when he doesn't have the puck and just gets it on net when he does. I think he'll go in the draft somewhere.
Greg Scott - Is one of those gut-feel players to me that I would have spent a 7th round pick on last year. And I would do it again this year. Reminds me a lot of Greg Black. And like Black, he's got late bloomer written all over him. I think he'll take until his overage season to bust out, and then someone will sign him as a free agent.
David Richard - Really looked like he was going to be something special a year ago. But he struggled to contribute at all. Has a lot of talent, but didn't get much out of it this season.
Brad Bakken - Good junior defenceman. Moves the puck okay for guy with decent size. Somebody might take a 7th round flyer on him.
Jeremy Schappert - Competes and has some puck skill. Not enough there to be an NHL prospect at this point, however.
Joshua Schappert - Good energy guy for a junior team. Not much beyond that.
Spokane Chiefs
Drayson Bowman - Never really stood out for me, but watched him enough to know there's a lot there under the surface. Would like to have seen him use his speed more. Cerebral player. Fair amount of upside. I think he's a solid pick somewhere around the late 2nd to 3rd round.
Ondrej Roman - Lazy and was scared of his own shadow for most of the first half. Still doesn't like traffic, but at least started to give more effort in the second half. Has a good shot, but won't score because he refuses to get himself into scoring position. I think he'll slide on draft day a bit, and won't go until the 3rd or 4th.
Justin Falk - Don't ask me why Central had him so high. I have no idea. He's got two things: six-five height, and an okay first pass. But if the pass isn't there, he can't carry it out. Not bad in the d-zone, but cannot skate. Not on my list, but I suppose he'll go late just on size.
Cody Esposito - Wouldn't be surprised if someone grabs this guy late. Pretty good skater for his size.
Chris Langkow - I really don't see too much to get excited about. Decent junior player.
Tri-City Americans
Juraj Valach - Lots to like here. Size, excellent hockey sense, and decent with the puck. Despite being very heavy footed, he's got a long, balanced stride. I like Valach a lot more than some of the other huge Slovak blueliners who have gone high in recent drafts. I think he's a good 2nd round pick, and could sneak into the first.
Jarrett Toll - I don't see anything more than a decent junior defenceman, but apparently someone on Central's staff sees something I don't. I'd bet a toonie with that scout that Toll doesn't get drafted at all.
Zach Hamill - I think he goes somewhere between 8-15. Has the raw talent to be top five, but concussion history is enough of a risk to drop him slightly. Head scouts have to account for the injury history - if he gets 1 or 2 more serious concussions, that could be a career killer.
Taylor Ellington - Pure projection. Has a lot of untapped upside. Scouts who have seen him a lot like him. I think several teams think they are the only ones who like his game and are going to steal in the 3rd round. Could go in the second. A wild card.
David Reekie - Okay, yes, he's an '87 goaltender playing behind a good team. But this is not Kelly Guard. He played so good at times this season, he's worth a late pick.
Lukas Vartovnik - High effort, all heart, no fear. Not sure that means you even go in the late rounds, however. Some teams like to take flyers on guys like this, though.
Others: Shane Harper will be a good junior player, but not a draft. Same probably goes Jesse Burt and Mike Alexander.
Portland Winter Hawks
Kurtis Mucha - Got about as close as you can get these days to a Steve Passmore kind of season. And scouts usually like to see goaltenders play a ton. I have a feeling there are a bunch of NHL guys who like him more than they will admit to me. I saw too much of him, so I only see the flaws - somewhat slow glove, so-so footwork. But he should go near the middle of the draft or higher. Outside shot at going as early as the 2nd.
Colton Sceviour - Was terrific the last few weeks of the season, after he returned from the broken foot. Before that, eh, not so much. Played with lots more grit at the end. Skating is still only so-so. Is late riser, but I still think 3rd round is best case for him.
Others: Matt Betker is going to be a good defensive forward in this league, but he's not a draft. Some team may like Lucas Alexiux enough to spend a late pick on him, but I don't see much of a pro prospect.
Seattle Thunderbirds
Thomas Hickey - I hoped for more from Hickey this season. Looked awful in the first half, recovered a bit after Christmas. Outstanding hockey sense, but he didn't rush the puck as much this year. To me, he's not as good as Kris Russell in his draft year, but he has all the same size questions. But Hickey is going to go in the first round, while Russell was a third rounder.
Radek Meidl - Two thoughts come into my head whenever I saw Meidl this season: 1) he looks an awful lot like Marian Hossa or Pavel Brendl, and 2) he sure doesn't play anything like Hossa or Brendl. Looks like one of those enigmatic and intrguiging perennial underachievers to me. He's got some upside, so he's not a bad 3rd or 4th round gamble.
Jan Eberle - Good skater and he competes, but I have hard time getting excited about this one. Plays a no-nonsense style, just goes to the net when he doesn't have the puck and just gets it on net when he does. I think he'll go in the draft somewhere.
Greg Scott - Is one of those gut-feel players to me that I would have spent a 7th round pick on last year. And I would do it again this year. Reminds me a lot of Greg Black. And like Black, he's got late bloomer written all over him. I think he'll take until his overage season to bust out, and then someone will sign him as a free agent.
David Richard - Really looked like he was going to be something special a year ago. But he struggled to contribute at all. Has a lot of talent, but didn't get much out of it this season.
Brad Bakken - Good junior defenceman. Moves the puck okay for guy with decent size. Somebody might take a 7th round flyer on him.
Jeremy Schappert - Competes and has some puck skill. Not enough there to be an NHL prospect at this point, however.
Joshua Schappert - Good energy guy for a junior team. Not much beyond that.
Spokane Chiefs
Drayson Bowman - Never really stood out for me, but watched him enough to know there's a lot there under the surface. Would like to have seen him use his speed more. Cerebral player. Fair amount of upside. I think he's a solid pick somewhere around the late 2nd to 3rd round.
Ondrej Roman - Lazy and was scared of his own shadow for most of the first half. Still doesn't like traffic, but at least started to give more effort in the second half. Has a good shot, but won't score because he refuses to get himself into scoring position. I think he'll slide on draft day a bit, and won't go until the 3rd or 4th.
Justin Falk - Don't ask me why Central had him so high. I have no idea. He's got two things: six-five height, and an okay first pass. But if the pass isn't there, he can't carry it out. Not bad in the d-zone, but cannot skate. Not on my list, but I suppose he'll go late just on size.
Cody Esposito - Wouldn't be surprised if someone grabs this guy late. Pretty good skater for his size.
Chris Langkow - I really don't see too much to get excited about. Decent junior player.
Tri-City Americans
Juraj Valach - Lots to like here. Size, excellent hockey sense, and decent with the puck. Despite being very heavy footed, he's got a long, balanced stride. I like Valach a lot more than some of the other huge Slovak blueliners who have gone high in recent drafts. I think he's a good 2nd round pick, and could sneak into the first.
Jarrett Toll - I don't see anything more than a decent junior defenceman, but apparently someone on Central's staff sees something I don't. I'd bet a toonie with that scout that Toll doesn't get drafted at all.
2007 Wrap, Part 3 - WHL BC
Chilliwack Bruins
Oscar Moller - Probably got more ice time than any other draft eligible forward. And he made the best of it. Should be a middle of the first round pick. If he slides out of the first round, some team is getting a steal.
Mark Santorelli - Can't skate. His older brother actually had more skill. But he couldn't skate either. I don't see him getting selected, but he'll get a number of camp invites.
Others: Not much else to get excited about here. Closest to drafts would be Colby Kulhanek or the agitating Cody Smuk. But it's not an 11 round draft anymore.
Kamloops Blazers
Keaton Ellerby - When your own coach is talking you down to NHL scouts, that's a bad sign. NHL teams have grown very wary. I have no idea where he goes. Could be around 15th overall...or could be absolute poison and slide all the way out of the top 50. If he drops as far as I think he could, it will be the shock of the draft to the message board crowd and those "scouting services" who don't actually go to games. Then again, all it takes is one team drafting in the first round who likes him enough, and all the dark clouds will be forgotten.
Brock Nixon - You gotta grab late bloomers like this. Sometimes they just keep getting better. Hard to peg - could be a middle round pick. Not impossible that he goes as early as the 3rd round. Also not impossible that every team looks at this '87 and says, "no thanks" again this season. You just never know.
Victor Bartley - Early last season I liked Bartley. Then later didn't like him. Then liked him again. Then I finally settled on "didn't like him" before the draft. So did the rest of the NHL. Some team may come back around to "like him" for this draft.
C.J. Stretch - Late rounds is not a...wait for it...stretch.
Travis Dunstall - Another projection, but with some Bantam credentials. If he finished stronger this season, he'd be likely to get a look. But I think he'll get passed over.
Dustin Butler - Honestly, before the playoffs, you Kamloops people have no idea just how astoundingly bad he was in Portland. And likewise, the Portland people have no idea how good he was this regular season. But then a funny thing happened on the way (back) to NHL prospect status - a hideous 2007 playoff season. Now you Kamloops people know what he looked like in Portland. Still could go in this year's draft, but probably only to a team that a staff with zero playoff viewings of him.
Others: Alex Rodgers looks like a pretty good junior defenceman, and he could get a look. Kevin Kraus looked good at times, and I could see a team liking him enough to take a later flyer.
Kelowna Rockets
Cody Almond - Big time late riser. Was a big beneficiary (in terms of ice time) of Ofukany, Saulietis, and Hill being traded. Size, a bit of skill, not a bad skater. Big wild card. Feels like a 4th/5th round guy to me, but could go way higher than I think.
Torrie Jung - Another wild card. Did not play well for me in the two games I saw him, but I know some NHL guys who like. I don't believe he's a top 3 round guy, but otherwise I have no idea where he could go.
Colin Long - I like his speed and elusiveness, but beyond that I don't think much of him. Could be a late pick, just on his speed.
Lucas Bloodoff - Did not get a real good read on him, but I thought there was some skill there. This Kelowna roster is full of some late round wild cards, and he's another one.
Brett Breitkreuz - He can skate and he works hard. I don't think he goes, however.
Prince George Cougars
Dana Tyrell - It took me a while to see it, but I love this player. And I think there's a number of NHL scouts that do too, but aren't telling anyone. I honestly think he could go as high as 15th overall. I'll be shocked if he doesn't go in the first round.
Chris VanDuynhoven - Isn't awful enough to overlook. Freakishly big, but I never once saw him throw a hit this season. Size still matters enough that he'll go in the middle or late rounds.
Others: Jordie Deagle works his butt off enough most games to possibly draw some late round interest. Lance Redden should be a much better player than he was this season and isn't a draft.
Vancouver Giants
Jonathan Blum - Has been mostly horrible for me this season. But still quite a bit of upside. Has one of the best hipchecks for a six-foot defenceman I've ever seen. I can't imagine spending a first round pick on him, but I think somebody might do it.
Spencer Machacek - Hard-hat and lunch pail kind of player. If he skated better, he'd go very high. Raised his stock with his playoff performance, but still only looks like a 3rd or 4th rounder to me.
Michal Repik - One of those guys you want somebody else to draft before you get to your 2nd round pick. Ultra streaky. Top ten skill, but lack of desire probably drops him to 2nd round, maybe even 3rd.
Brent Regner - Looked merely okay for the regular season, but has grown on me during the playoffs. Plays well rounded game. But I'm still not sure it translates to the next level. Middle rounder in my book, but could surprise and go as early as the 3rd.
Tyson Sexsmith - Has been very good every time I've seen him. Had him very high on list (knocking on the door of the first round) about mid-season, but everyone else I talked to about him thought I was smoking something. Like all goaltenders, has the occasional bad game - but unfortunately, when he has a bad one, it's usually a doozy. He's in the 2nd round on my list, but I have no idea if there's a single NHL scout that agrees with that.
Mitch Czibere - Some speed, decent hands, and I like the way he works along the boards. But probably not enough here to spend more than a late pick on.
Oscar Moller - Probably got more ice time than any other draft eligible forward. And he made the best of it. Should be a middle of the first round pick. If he slides out of the first round, some team is getting a steal.
Mark Santorelli - Can't skate. His older brother actually had more skill. But he couldn't skate either. I don't see him getting selected, but he'll get a number of camp invites.
Others: Not much else to get excited about here. Closest to drafts would be Colby Kulhanek or the agitating Cody Smuk. But it's not an 11 round draft anymore.
Kamloops Blazers
Keaton Ellerby - When your own coach is talking you down to NHL scouts, that's a bad sign. NHL teams have grown very wary. I have no idea where he goes. Could be around 15th overall...or could be absolute poison and slide all the way out of the top 50. If he drops as far as I think he could, it will be the shock of the draft to the message board crowd and those "scouting services" who don't actually go to games. Then again, all it takes is one team drafting in the first round who likes him enough, and all the dark clouds will be forgotten.
Brock Nixon - You gotta grab late bloomers like this. Sometimes they just keep getting better. Hard to peg - could be a middle round pick. Not impossible that he goes as early as the 3rd round. Also not impossible that every team looks at this '87 and says, "no thanks" again this season. You just never know.
Victor Bartley - Early last season I liked Bartley. Then later didn't like him. Then liked him again. Then I finally settled on "didn't like him" before the draft. So did the rest of the NHL. Some team may come back around to "like him" for this draft.
C.J. Stretch - Late rounds is not a...wait for it...stretch.
Travis Dunstall - Another projection, but with some Bantam credentials. If he finished stronger this season, he'd be likely to get a look. But I think he'll get passed over.
Dustin Butler - Honestly, before the playoffs, you Kamloops people have no idea just how astoundingly bad he was in Portland. And likewise, the Portland people have no idea how good he was this regular season. But then a funny thing happened on the way (back) to NHL prospect status - a hideous 2007 playoff season. Now you Kamloops people know what he looked like in Portland. Still could go in this year's draft, but probably only to a team that a staff with zero playoff viewings of him.
Others: Alex Rodgers looks like a pretty good junior defenceman, and he could get a look. Kevin Kraus looked good at times, and I could see a team liking him enough to take a later flyer.
Kelowna Rockets
Cody Almond - Big time late riser. Was a big beneficiary (in terms of ice time) of Ofukany, Saulietis, and Hill being traded. Size, a bit of skill, not a bad skater. Big wild card. Feels like a 4th/5th round guy to me, but could go way higher than I think.
Torrie Jung - Another wild card. Did not play well for me in the two games I saw him, but I know some NHL guys who like. I don't believe he's a top 3 round guy, but otherwise I have no idea where he could go.
Colin Long - I like his speed and elusiveness, but beyond that I don't think much of him. Could be a late pick, just on his speed.
Lucas Bloodoff - Did not get a real good read on him, but I thought there was some skill there. This Kelowna roster is full of some late round wild cards, and he's another one.
Brett Breitkreuz - He can skate and he works hard. I don't think he goes, however.
Prince George Cougars
Dana Tyrell - It took me a while to see it, but I love this player. And I think there's a number of NHL scouts that do too, but aren't telling anyone. I honestly think he could go as high as 15th overall. I'll be shocked if he doesn't go in the first round.
Chris VanDuynhoven - Isn't awful enough to overlook. Freakishly big, but I never once saw him throw a hit this season. Size still matters enough that he'll go in the middle or late rounds.
Others: Jordie Deagle works his butt off enough most games to possibly draw some late round interest. Lance Redden should be a much better player than he was this season and isn't a draft.
Vancouver Giants
Jonathan Blum - Has been mostly horrible for me this season. But still quite a bit of upside. Has one of the best hipchecks for a six-foot defenceman I've ever seen. I can't imagine spending a first round pick on him, but I think somebody might do it.
Spencer Machacek - Hard-hat and lunch pail kind of player. If he skated better, he'd go very high. Raised his stock with his playoff performance, but still only looks like a 3rd or 4th rounder to me.
Michal Repik - One of those guys you want somebody else to draft before you get to your 2nd round pick. Ultra streaky. Top ten skill, but lack of desire probably drops him to 2nd round, maybe even 3rd.
Brent Regner - Looked merely okay for the regular season, but has grown on me during the playoffs. Plays well rounded game. But I'm still not sure it translates to the next level. Middle rounder in my book, but could surprise and go as early as the 3rd.
Tyson Sexsmith - Has been very good every time I've seen him. Had him very high on list (knocking on the door of the first round) about mid-season, but everyone else I talked to about him thought I was smoking something. Like all goaltenders, has the occasional bad game - but unfortunately, when he has a bad one, it's usually a doozy. He's in the 2nd round on my list, but I have no idea if there's a single NHL scout that agrees with that.
Mitch Czibere - Some speed, decent hands, and I like the way he works along the boards. But probably not enough here to spend more than a late pick on.
2007 Wrap, Part 2 - WHL Central
Calgary Hitmen
Karl Alzner - The top defenceman in the entire draft. Top five pick. Yes, he's Wade Redden. Plug him into your top pairing for the next 15 years.
Alex Plante - If he skated better, he could be top 15-20. And he still might anyway, just because there's not much left in this draft after about 17 overall. Underrated puck skills. My gut says he'll go somewhere around 30 or so.
Brett Sonne - Everyone asks me, what happened to this guy? Looked like a much better prospect at this time a year ago than he does now. Still a mid- to late-round draft, however.
Others: Keegan Dansereau could go as a 2nd year eligible. And a very slight chance the same could go for Ian Duval. And Eric Frere might have an outside shot at going in the late rounds.
Kootenay Ice
John Negrin - Huge upside, but big injury risk. I think he goes in the last few picks of the first round or in the 2nd. Good pick for a gambling scouting director.
Kris Lazaruk - Had this guy high on my list last year, and I do again this year. I've heard there's off ice questions. But he's too good not to at least spend a middle round pick on, I think.
Dustin Sylvester - He's going to be fun to watch for the next few years. Sometimes it's nice for a junior team to have a very good junior player that NHL teams won't be interested in - because you know you can keep him all the way through the end of his overage season. This is one of those guys.
Lethbridge Hurricanes
Justin Leclerc - Something about him bothers me, and it's hard to put my finger on it. Just technique, I think. Doesn't seem to square well and every save looks like a struggle. Over-commits a lot. But he's got good natural quickness. Every scout has a different "prototype" for goaltenders, so I'm sure some team will like him more than I do. He's no better than a 4th/5th rounder to me.
Dwight King - I expected more. Played a rough style last season. This season he seemed determined to prove he's a finesse skill guy. That's okay, but you better keep up the gritty play. He didn't. I don't like his slow release and his passes seem to come a second too late. Maybe 2nd or 3rd round? I don't know if I'd take him there, though.
Ryan Kerr - Well, he should be a pretty good junior defenceman. That's about it. I still have to remind myself this guy was the #1 overall Bantam pick in 2004. I don't see him going.
Carter Bancks - Fun to watch him on the forecheck and penalty kill. You'd like energy guys to be a bit bigger, though. Could be a late pick.
Mitch Fadden - He's gotta go this year, doesn't he? He was awful in his first draft year, but still worth a pick. At least he started trying again this season. Too many off-ice distractions in Seattle. The move the Lethbridge seems to have been good for him.
Medicine Hat Tigers
Ryan Holfield - Hmm, he's just okay. Quick, challenges well, but his feet move too much. But I think some team will like him enough to make a late round pick out of him. I could see him going middle rounds, too.
David Schlemko - He should have been a late round pick last year. Could be a middle round one this year. Or could slide out altogether again. To me, you have to grab this guy instead of trading off your 7th round pick so you can get back to the hotel early.
Shayne Brown - I think he fought in every game I saw him in this year. But then I see he only had 69 PIM. Unless some team only saw exactly the same games I did, he won't go.
Red Deer Rebels
Brandon Sutter - Played very poorly for me every time I saw him. But a couple of very good NHL scouts who I know well love him. Should be a first rounder, and could go anywhere between 10th to 30th overall. But beware that very poor second half of the season (2 goals after January 1).
Patrick Kozyra - Should have been more. Have a very slight feeling he may be a late bloomer and show a lot more next season. But you can't draft a guy only on that.
Karl Alzner - The top defenceman in the entire draft. Top five pick. Yes, he's Wade Redden. Plug him into your top pairing for the next 15 years.
Alex Plante - If he skated better, he could be top 15-20. And he still might anyway, just because there's not much left in this draft after about 17 overall. Underrated puck skills. My gut says he'll go somewhere around 30 or so.
Brett Sonne - Everyone asks me, what happened to this guy? Looked like a much better prospect at this time a year ago than he does now. Still a mid- to late-round draft, however.
Others: Keegan Dansereau could go as a 2nd year eligible. And a very slight chance the same could go for Ian Duval. And Eric Frere might have an outside shot at going in the late rounds.
Kootenay Ice
John Negrin - Huge upside, but big injury risk. I think he goes in the last few picks of the first round or in the 2nd. Good pick for a gambling scouting director.
Kris Lazaruk - Had this guy high on my list last year, and I do again this year. I've heard there's off ice questions. But he's too good not to at least spend a middle round pick on, I think.
Dustin Sylvester - He's going to be fun to watch for the next few years. Sometimes it's nice for a junior team to have a very good junior player that NHL teams won't be interested in - because you know you can keep him all the way through the end of his overage season. This is one of those guys.
Lethbridge Hurricanes
Justin Leclerc - Something about him bothers me, and it's hard to put my finger on it. Just technique, I think. Doesn't seem to square well and every save looks like a struggle. Over-commits a lot. But he's got good natural quickness. Every scout has a different "prototype" for goaltenders, so I'm sure some team will like him more than I do. He's no better than a 4th/5th rounder to me.
Dwight King - I expected more. Played a rough style last season. This season he seemed determined to prove he's a finesse skill guy. That's okay, but you better keep up the gritty play. He didn't. I don't like his slow release and his passes seem to come a second too late. Maybe 2nd or 3rd round? I don't know if I'd take him there, though.
Ryan Kerr - Well, he should be a pretty good junior defenceman. That's about it. I still have to remind myself this guy was the #1 overall Bantam pick in 2004. I don't see him going.
Carter Bancks - Fun to watch him on the forecheck and penalty kill. You'd like energy guys to be a bit bigger, though. Could be a late pick.
Mitch Fadden - He's gotta go this year, doesn't he? He was awful in his first draft year, but still worth a pick. At least he started trying again this season. Too many off-ice distractions in Seattle. The move the Lethbridge seems to have been good for him.
Medicine Hat Tigers
Ryan Holfield - Hmm, he's just okay. Quick, challenges well, but his feet move too much. But I think some team will like him enough to make a late round pick out of him. I could see him going middle rounds, too.
David Schlemko - He should have been a late round pick last year. Could be a middle round one this year. Or could slide out altogether again. To me, you have to grab this guy instead of trading off your 7th round pick so you can get back to the hotel early.
Shayne Brown - I think he fought in every game I saw him in this year. But then I see he only had 69 PIM. Unless some team only saw exactly the same games I did, he won't go.
Red Deer Rebels
Brandon Sutter - Played very poorly for me every time I saw him. But a couple of very good NHL scouts who I know well love him. Should be a first rounder, and could go anywhere between 10th to 30th overall. But beware that very poor second half of the season (2 goals after January 1).
Patrick Kozyra - Should have been more. Have a very slight feeling he may be a late bloomer and show a lot more next season. But you can't draft a guy only on that.
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