2007 Wrap, Part 1 - WHL East

Since I've neglected this space for such a long time, I'll make up for it by posting a big end of the season run down on all the prospects from my region (WHL and BCHL).


Brandon Wheat Kings

Andrew Clark - Is he one of those "good junior players" or is he a real prospect? Some scouts think very highly of him, others not so. Since he competes hard and has some pretty good skill, he seems like a probable mid-round pick.

Keith Aulie - I see big problems with his skating stride. Some teams don't care. Five years ago, he could have been as high as a 3rd round pick. But the game has changed, and so has the draft. I'd be surprised if he goes before the last couple of rounds.

Others: Daniel Bartek should have scored more than he did, given his talent. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Jay Fehr go, but he's missing more than just his brother's size (his hands, for one). Joe Caliguri was hard to see this season, and being 5-9 is still a big negative for goaltenders. And wasn't Matt Hallick a big scorer in Bantam?


Moose Jaw Warriors

Jordan Knackstedt - Looked like a really good 2nd round pick about a year ago this time. Now he looks like a so-so 5th round pick. Looks like his skating got a lot worse over the last summer. Did he bulk up too much? Went from being a guy I was pretty excited about last season to a don't-care player this season.

Travis Ehrhardt - I know he'll go somewhere, but I just didn't care much for this one. Probably a middle round guy.


Prince Albert Raiders

Ryan DePape - Well, if you're going to have a crappy draft year, then it helps if have a huge one the next season. Could go surprisingly early, but I think he's in the middle or late rounds.

Matt Robertson - Hey, sometimes big numbers in Midget does translate to success in major junior. Doesn't have much size, but I figure he's got go in the second half of the draft.

Others: Toughness is always hard to find in the draft, so that makes Cody Vann a possible late pick. Andy Smith is smallish, but there's an outside chance he gets a late look. I don't see anyone taking Justin Palazzo just on his size, but it's possible.


Regina Pats

Nick Ross - Just never saw it. I know someone is going to grab him in the second round, but he just never did anything in the games I saw. I can see there's some skill there, but I never see him do anything with it.

Linden Rowat - Tough for me to see this year, because for some reason, I ended up seeing a lot of Tommy Tartaglione's starts. Did not get a good read in the one game I saw, but my guess is he's a middle round guy.

Brett Leffler - Sometimes it's tough being a #1 overall Bantam pick - he can ask Ryan Kerr about that. Strong start to the season, but didn't do much after October. Skating is a problem. Still quite a bit of projectable skill, so he'll at least go late.


Saskatoon Blades

Colton Gillies - I can't remember a player who has generated this much argument on the Red Line staff and between other NHL scouts. I once described his attributes (size and skating) as the equivalent of crack cocaine for NHL scouts. Very addictive, but very dangerous. The problem is that he's just got no idea with the puck. Skated the puck right into the defenceman countless times this season. He's still going to be a pretty decent defensive forward, but do you want to spend a high first round pick for that? The most intriguing thing about him was the handful of games he played defence this year - that might be a good permanent move. I think he goes somewhere between 10-20 overall, but a lot of scouts are saying, "I hope he's gone by the time we pick."

Justin McCrae - Is one of those guys that I think I see something in that nobody else does. Skating is a question, but I think it's going to be good enough. Terrific defensively this year. Bad linemates hurt his totals - I don't know why they didn't have McCrae centre a line with Gillies on the wing. I think he's got a lot more offense in him than we've seen. I think he's an 80-90 point guy next year and will make whoever takes him in the late 2nd or 3rd round look smart.

Others: Despite a ton of 89s, there's not much else for NHL scouts to get excited about. Both Ryan Funk and Brett Ward are going to be a solid junior defencemen, and might be worth a last round pick. Garrett Klotz improved his skating, but it's still bad - but a guy this big who competes this well might get a look.


Swift Current Broncos

Eric Doyle - Hard to figure for me. I like his aggressive style and the way he rushes the puck. But I think there's a lack of hockey sense there that is a problem. I know some think of him as a first rounder, but I'd be surprised at that. I think he's a late 2nd round guy.

Paul Postma - Lots of puck skill and good size, but I don't like his skating. Not real good in the defensive zone and chases a lot. I'm guessing he'll go in the middle or late rounds.

Derek Claffey - Good skater and might have enough skill to draw late round interest.

Kyle Bortis - Should have been a 7th round gamble pick last year. Maybe still only worth a 7th this year. Way too much skill to not roll the dice with a late pick on a player like this.

Daniel Rakos - Yes, he's an 87. But this guy has size, quickness, and he put up a few points this year. Worth a late pick.

NHL Draft Goes Prime Time

Heard from multiple NHL sources yesterday that the 2007 NHL Entry Draft will be a two day event. The first round will go Friday night, June 22, at 7:00 PM.

The draft resumes the next morning at 10:00 AM, finishing rounds 2-7.

So the rumors were true; and it looks like the NHL is aiming for a little prime time television exposure for the Entry Draft. I wonder: will we all have to wear tuxedos? Will they bring in Billy Crystal as emcee? At least they wouldn't boo Crystal in the Canadian cities...

I say, forget Billy Crystal, let's get Ric Flair to host it. "The first selection in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft belongs to the Philadelphia Flyers. Wooooo!!!"

One Game: It CAN Hurt Your Draft Status

There's a conventional wisdom that the CHL Top Prospects Game -- since it's just a single game -- can help your status among the eyes of NHL scouts, but won't hurt it if you have a bad game.

And in a way, that's true. NHL scouts understand the nature of the game - everyone has off nights. No player will get written off or dropped on a list just because he doesn't hit the scoresheet or just looks off in the Top Prospects Game (TPG).

I used to believe this conventional wisdom was absolute. Almost no matter how awful your TPG performance was, it could never outweigh the positives a scout may observe at multiple regular season or playoff viewings.

But I changed my thinking of this a bit after the 2005 TPG in Vancouver. I ended up dropping Chris Durand from the first round to the second round on my list, solely based on this one game.

Why?

Well, I'd seen plenty of Durand before that game, and I felt I already had a good read on him. In my book he was terrifically skilled, but a marginal skater, at best. And in all those Seattle games I saw in Durand's draft year, his skating didn't keep him from being effective.

But the Top Prospects Game was a real eye opener. Durand was simply overmatched by the speed of that game. That collection of high-end prospects on one ice sheet resulted in a much faster, NHL-paced game than any WHL regular season or playoff game would ever be. And it exposed Durand's marginal skating as a serious flaw - one that might hurt his ability to succeed at the next level.

It's still mostly true that a poor TPG performance in and of itself won't hurt your draft status. But there are other ways that the TPG can expose flaws that can negatively affect NHL scouts' view of a prospect.

WHL Deadline Day + 1

Keener's got a good wrap-up of yesterday's WHL trade deadline goings-on.

Some post deadline random thoughts from me...

I can hear the great knashing of teeth in Vancouver all the way down here in Portland. Despite approximately eleven thousand stories over the last few months in the Sun and the Province about how the Giants were working the phones for either Carey Price or Kyle Moir - it just was never going to happen. Nachbaur/Tory and Chynoweth/Moberg know that having a goaltender who can steal a playoff round or two is going to be worth a lot more to them than anything Vancouver could offter, short of all of the Giants' first round picks for the next 10 years.

The YVR media coverage of The Holy Quest for Price or Moir was laughable. It was like some homer fan posting trade proposals on his favorite team's internet message board: "Why don't we trade our 7th defenceman and the 18 year old we healthy scratch all the time for Carey Price. I think if we threw in a 7th round pick, the Ams/Broncos would go for it."

As for the moves the Giants did make - A.J. Thelen adds some depth, but I'm not sure he's that much of an upgrade over John Flatters. But at least it might be fun to watch a power play pairing of Thelen and Cody Franson - talk about shots from the point. Michael Wuchterl is a good energy guy, but even with Kyle Lamb's disappointing season, I'd rather have him than an energy guy who has much less skill.

I think Everett getting Dane Crowley is clearly the best move of the day. Everett fans are bemoaning the high price paid (Eric Doyle), but Crowley is very underrated and I'm beginning to wonder if Doyle's lack of hockey sense will ever allow him to hit his upside. If the 'Tips had a weakness, it was their blueline - and I think Crowley is exactly the kind of guy they needed.

Can't blame Kamloops for giving another of Portland's busts a try (Sasha Golin), given how well the Dustin Butler deal has turned out. I doubt Golin will immediately break out and start fulfilling the promise he had when was a 5th overall pick in the 2003 Bantam Draft, but you never know. In return, one of the best skaters in the Dub (Max Schmermund) joins the worst skating teams in the league (Portland).

Oh, and I'll miss being able to see Myles Stoesz frequently, as he moves off to the prairies (Regina). The league needs more crazies like him. He's a different sort of "throwback" player...remember when guys like Richard Peacock played in the WHL? I miss those days...

And the milk-coming-out-of-your-nose-when-you-heard-it move of the day: Prince George bringing back Scott Bowles from the OHL ash heap. Yep, the same Scotty Bowles who was cast onto the WHL ash heap and bounced to Owen Sound and Windsor in the O. I have no way of looking it up, but I doubt there's ever been another player to clear waivers through an entire league twice in the same season. The best punch line to all this would have been if Dallas Thompson banished Jordan White down to Powell River at the same time (where ex-Cougars coach Mike Vandekamp landed after they fired him). It's like palindromic hockey transactions. So welcome back to the Dub Scotty. But don't get too settled...

Friday Massacre

Posting from my PDA at the Memorial Coliseum: Word has hit the rinks that Los Angeles today fired head scout Al Murray, assistant director of scouting Grant Sonier, and an unconfirmed number of the rest of their amateur scouting staff.

There's lots of long faces in scouts rooms in rinks across North America tonight, as this news is hitting the scouting community pretty hard. Murray is widely respected and liked among his peers and a mid-season firing like this is absolutely unheard of.

Among NHL scouts, this is nuclear bomb of a news story.

Don't Expect BCHL or WHL in Wenatchee

Out here in the Pacific Northwest, there's a lot of talk about the $45 million dollar arena project that has broken ground in Wenatchee, Washington.

The conventional wisdom is that the city must have it's eye on a BCHL or WHL hockey team.

But I don't think that is what's happening.

The Wenatchee arena project is being managed by Global Entertainment, the parent company of the Central Hockey League.

I've got to think there's zero chance that Global is spending all this money/effort just to give a big franchise expansion fee to the WHL or BCHL. Nor are they spending all this money to give away the arena to some existing WHL/BCHL owner. I also doubt that they're helping the city gamble $45 million on a new arena in the hopes they can buy some WHL/BCHL team that currently isn't for sale.

So forget all the speculation about WHL or BCHL in Wenatchee. It's not happening (at least for now). They are either putting a Central Hockey League team in there or it will be part of splitting some existing CHL teams into another new league. It either case, it looks like Wenatchee is the first step in a plan for geographic expansion of Global's professional hockey holdings.

The CHL has had some amazing success planting new arenas and new teams in some very strange and impossibly small markets (like Hidalgo, Texas, population 7,300). So these guys do know how to sell hockey in small markets.

Second Chance for Knackstedt

Well, here's one trade that needed to happen to perhaps help Jordan Knackstedt's draft prospects.

Knackstedt was high on my list (2nd/3rd round range) going into this season, but has not looked anywhere near the player he was 2005-06. To my eye, his skating has gone significantly backwards this season.

Add that to the fact he's been buried on an awful third line for the Rebels, and Knackstedt has been dropping like a rock on some lists (read: my list). Despite all that he's still putting up decent numbers.

Now, I suppose being traded to Moose Jaw doesn't immediately improve one's skating, but we can at least expect Knackstedt to not be relegated to third line duty for the Warriors.

UPDATE: Central measured Knackstedt at 195 lbs this year, vs. 168 last September. So perhaps the big bulk up has hurt his skating.