Thursday, June 10, 2010

Emerson Etem / LW / Medicine Hat WHL

Emerson Etem / Medicine Hat Tigers WHL

LW-L / 6-0.25, 190 / 16-Jun-92

Skating: 65 / Skill: 60 / Sense: 50 / Compete: 60 / Toughness: 40

Strengths: Exceptional straight line speed. Excellent finisher in the slot. Consistently gets open for scoring chances.

Weaknesses: Game is one-dimensional. Turning and agility is sub-par. Not much of a physical game.

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Does one thing really well offensively: get open in the slot and bury his scoring chances. Other than that, he doesn't really do much with the puck. Is not a great stickhandler or real creative.

Hockey sense is both very good and very bad. Very good in that he knows where to go away from the puck and has a knack for getting himself into scoring position. Very bad in almost every other respect, as he doesn't show real good anticipation defensively. Frequently behind the play and chasing the puck carrier.

Straight line speed is outstanding, but everything else about his skating is worrysome. Has an odd looking stride and doesn't seem to turn or stop/start quickly. Just does not have any elusiveness with the puck - he's got to beat a d-man wide or else he won't generate a chance.

Has very good overall strength, but doesn't use it. Does not initiate much contact. Despite somewhat soft play, does have good work ethic and energy level.

Summary: No real red flags with this guy, but enough yellow flags to make me wonder. I could live with the bad turns and somewhat soft play, but the overall hockey sense is the big concern for me. But 44 goals in 84 total games in his first stint in major junior is really hard to ignore. That kind of ability to put the puck in the net usually translates to the next level, but I can't reconcile the problems I see to the numbers on the stat sheet. In the end, this guy is going to go higher than where I'd consider him.

Draft Day: Should go right in the middle of the first round. Either sneaking into the top ten or sliding a bit to the back of the 1st round isn't impossible.

Sunday, June 06, 2010

Calvin Pickard / G / Seattle WHL

Calvin Pickard / Seattle Thunderbirds WHL

G-L / 6-0.5, 195 / 15-Apr-92

Quickness: 55 / Glove: 60 / Reads: 55 / Technique: 65 / Poise: 70

Strengths: Excellent mental approach and consistency. Technically advanced game. Handles the puck well.

Weaknesses: Might be slightly lacking overall quickness. Makes occasional wrong read. Average size.

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Plays with great poise and confidence. Aggressive and comes way out to challenge shooters. Excellent at waiting for shooters to make the first move. Much, much less scrambly than he was in his rookie season.

Has a quick glove, but does not always catch the puck cleanly. Decent leg quickness - his overall quickness might be a bit underrated since his positioning is so good. Very good on rebound control with the pads. Gets post to post pretty well.

Very consistent and always played his best despite playing a ton of minutes and seeing a ton of shots. On some rare occasions did not read plays correctly, but that's probably inevitable with the chaos that was the Thunderbirds defensive corps in front of him.

Summary: I might be slightly overrating this guy because of the dearth of decent goaltending prospects in the west for the last few years. Slightly better prospect than his brother was at the same age, but Chet had better size. But he seems like a safe bet to become at least a solid #2 for most teams.

Draft Day: I'd guess he'll go in the 2nd half of the 1st round. A slide to 30-40 range isn't unthinkable, but would surprise me a bit.

Quinton Howden / LW / Moose Jaw WHL

Quinton Howden / Moose Jaw Warriors WHL

LW-L / 6-2.0, 182 / 21-Jan-92

Skating: 70 / Skill: 65 / Sense: 55 / Compete: 55 / Toughness: 40

Strengths: Excellent speed and quickness. Very good shooting touch. Good energy level.

Weaknesses: Lacks strength and does not use his size at all. Overall hockey sense isn't great. Needs a playmaking linemate to generate offense.

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Has three big ingredients: size, skating, and shooting touch. But he's a ways from putting it together. Plays a finesse style - he could be 5-9 and get the same results he does now. Does have a projectable frame, but does not really battle physically and gets knocked off the puck too easily. Started to protect the puck a little better late in the season, but still needs to add a lot of overall strength.

But lucky for him, he has the speed and quickness that make it hard for d-men to get a clean hit on him. Excellent top speed and first step quickness. Has a knack for stealing passes and getting to the other end quickly. Does not display real good vision or playmaking ability. Most of his offense comes from speed and ability to unload a shot quickly from the slot or on the move. Has an excellent release and very good accuracy. Gets a lot on his wrist shot.

Overall, his game is still quite unrefined. It's hard not to look at a 6-2 guy and come away disappointed with just how finesse a style he plays. But at the end of the game, he'll have had several prime scoring chances. Doesn't really create for himself and particularly struggled when linemate Jason Bast was on the shelf with an injury in Nov/Dec. But this shouldn't be much of a concern at the NHL level if you can line him up with a playmaker.

Defensive game and play away from the puck will need quite a bit of work. Consistently gives a good effort and has a lot of energy, but you'd like to see him get in there and battle even just a little bit. Doesn't play scared at all, but you have to wonder if he won't frustrate coaches with his lack of physical play. It's usually futile to assume a gentle giant will somehow find a nasty edge - you either have that grit or you don't - no one's going to teach it to you.

Summary: Despite the negatives, I do like this player. If I thought he was scared I wouldn't have him this high. The skating and shot will play, but he might take some extra time for the rest of his game to come along. The natural hockey sense just isn't quite there, and that does indicate some bust potential. And he's going to have to play on your top two lines to contribute.

Draft Day: Seems like a guy who is widely considered a 20-35 range guy, and with his skating and hands might be a bit of a steal there. But you have to know that he might take some development time. Underwhelming performance in Minsk could drop him out of the 1st round, but he becomes a steal if he slides past 30-35.

Matt MacKenzie / RD / Calgary WHL

Matt MacKenzie / Calgary Hitmen WHL

D-R / 6-1.0, 191 / 15-Oct-91

Skating: 55 / Skill: 60 / Sense: 70 / Compete: 65 / Toughness: 55

Strengths: Excellent hockey sense. Plays a complete two-way game. Solid puck skills.

Weaknesses: Skating is decent - but you wish it was better for an average sized d-man. Average size. Might not be a lot of upside - what you see is what you get.

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Does so many things well, but isn't flashy. Combine that with the fact that his sophomore season was a huge disappointment for scouts, and it's easy to overlook this guy. If you're worried about the slow development, consider his role on the Hitmen for the last two seasons - they've had a deep, veteran-laden defensive corps the previous two seasons. It wasn't until this season that he even really had much opportunity to get top-four or special teams minutes.

Raw offensive skills that we saw in his first two seasons finally started to come together this year. Moves the puck well and can run the power play. Has a hard shot from the point, but accuracy isn't great - tends to use it to generate rebounds rather than try to hit the corners to beat the goaltender.

Plus skater with decent footspeed, but you wish he were just a bit faster given the offensive style he plays. That said, there's nothing about his stride that is a red flag - backward stride, pivots, overall quickness is all at least a bit above average.

Defensive zone play improved greatly this season. Thinks the game well. Makes the right plays in all three zones. Has a knack for keeping opponents to the outside and filling the seams. Also picked up the physical play, but he's probably not going to be much of a banger in the NHL. However, he has good strength and should be able to hold his own in battles for the puck at the next level.

Summary: Western based scouts are probably underrating this guy a bit since they've seen so much of him in the last three seasons. But his tremendous play during the post season was a reminder of why scouts were so excited about this guy back when he was 16. Safe bet to be a solid 2nd or 3rd pairing guy who can also be a 2nd unit power play regular. The hockey sense just makes him such a safe pick.

That and there is a thought in the back of my brain that he reminds me just a tiny bit of Mike Green at the same age. So I've got a little gut feel that there could be some surprise upside here. I wouldn't hesitate spending a pick in the 20-30 range on this guy, but I might be the only one who likes this guy that much.

Draft Day: Everyone thinks he's going to go right in the middle of the 2nd round, but given how good he was in the playoffs I won't be surprised if he sneaks into the back of the 1st. But 30-45 seems most likely to me.

Dylan McIlrath / RD / Moose Jaw WHL

Dylan McIlrath / Moose Jaw Warriors WHL

D-R / 6-4.25, 212 / 20-Apr-92

Skating: 45 / Skill: 50 / Sense: 60 / Compete: 70 / Toughness: 75

Strengths: Tough, mean SOB who is just nasty to play against. Smart and solid in his own end. Has Tyler Myers-like pokecheck ability.

Weaknesses: Skating is average at best. Limited offense.

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This is the kind of guy we're talking about when we describe a d-man as "rugged". Loves to hit and make opponents pay the price. Big open ice hitter. Uses the hip check effectively. Tremendous and eager fighter.

Offensive ability is not yet there, but many are selling his upside short. Shows flashes of jumping into the offense smartly and ability to shoot the puck. Feet are just a little bit slow. But his stride got longer this season and he does have some decent straight line speed that helps him recover if he get surprised by a speedy forward. (But yes, if a scout writes "good recovery speed" down as a note, that is not really a positive thing.) Underrated first pass ability - just keeps it simple and gets it out of trouble with reliability. That's all he'll need to be an effective NHLer.

Made some big strides defensively this season. Used to run around a lot looking for the big hit, but now is very effective and smart in the d-zone. Positioning is solid, but often has to give a bigger gap because he's not the best skater. However, his huge reach makes up for that and allows him to be very disruptive with the poke/sweep checks. Makes opponents pay for coming into the crease.

Oh, and did I mention, this guy can really throw 'em in a fight?

Summary: Your assessment of this guy probably depends on how you view his skating. It's not a huge negative for me, but it's not unreasonable to think his pivoting and backward stride are a serious red flag. But I saw a fair bit of improvement in his skating, and there should be more of that to come. I think his offense will come around and let him be at least a good #4. But even in the absolute worst case, if you have to convert him to a 3rd/4th line right wing enforcer, he's going to be a guy that other teams wish they had.

Draft Day: I love this guy and I think he'll surprise on draft day. Scouts who have seen a lot of him understand he's got a more well-rounded game than he gets credit for. If I was picking in the 8-15 range, I'd really argue for this guy. (I'd slot him ahead of Connolly if my team medical specialists expressed any concern about Connolly's hips.) Somewhere in the 15-25 range seems most likely, and I can't imagine him dropping much further than that.

Nino Niederreiter / RW / Portland WHL

Nino Niederreiter / Portland Winterhawks WHL

RW-L / 6-1.5, 205 / 08-Sep-92

Skating: 60 / Skill: 65 / Sense: 70 / Compete: 75 / Toughness: 65

Strengths: Plays with a ton of passion. Hates to lose. Has an excellent shooting touch. Good strength and likes to be physical.

Weaknesses: First step quickness is lacking. Not terribly dynamic off the rush. Needs help from linemates to create scoring chances.

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So much for Swiss stereotypes. Competes hard all the time and has an obvious passion for the game. If he were named Neil Niederchuk, he'd be the poster boy for the North American hard hat and lunch bucket style of play. Except this guy also brings a lot of Euro offense.

Shooting touch is his best asset. Accurate, hard shot and has a tremendous release. Good one-timer. Always seems to force goaltenders to make a tough save no matter where he's shooting from. Excellent hands, can stickhandle and make nice crisp passes, but still figuring out how to use his linemates. Has some decent speed, but takes a couple steps to get going. Outstanding agility and balance. Skating is a plus overall.

Tries to play a dynamic, game-breaking end-to-end kind of style at times, but that part of his game is unrefined and held back by slight lack of quickness. Can also play a blue collar style effectively. Loves to throw the body around. Does a lot of dirty work. Put on quite a bit of muscle on before this season and has good overall strength. Underrated defensively.

Seemed to sag late in the season, as he just didn't have the jump in his legs, probably due to having played in far more games than ever before in his career. Dug down and found some extra jump in the playoffs, and played some of his best hockey in the postseason.

Summary: Goal scoring ability alone will play well in the NHL. That combined with the compete level makes him one of the safest picks in the draft. Will contribute whether he tops out as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd line winger.

Draft Day: Back end of the top ten, in the 5-10 range. I don't really see him going much higher or lower than that.

Ryan Johansen / C / Portland WHL

Ryan Johansen / Portland Winterhawks WHL

C-R / 6-2, 192 / 31-Jul-92

Skating: 60 / Skill: 70 / Sense: 70 / Compete: 60 / Toughness: 55

Strengths: Great playmaking ability. Plays a complete game. Has steadily got better for the last two seasons.

Weaknesses: Skating stride could be a bit smoother. Lacks natural physical aggression. Not a great pure shooter.

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Has come a long way in the last two or three years. Had a late growth spurt and seemed to be improving his athletic coordination right before our eyes this season.

Terrific vision and passing ability. Has a knack for protecting the puck down low, drawing the defense out of position, and then hitting linemates with a sharp pass. Dynamic ability was a revelation in the 2nd half. Started creating off the rush more and beating d-men with some fancy stickhandles. You might wish his shooting touch was a bit better, but his offensive game projects well and could be one of those 2-to-1 assist-to-goal type guys that are so valuable.

Skating improved considerably this season, but still looks like he's on the verge of losing his edges every time he gets going at speed. But despite how odd it looks, he always gets to where he's going and has some deceptive speed.

Turned himself into an excellent defensive forward and a very effective penalty killer. Physical play was the only hole in his game, but he really picked that up after the Top Prospects Game.

Summary: Almost every aspect of his game kept getting better all season long. The possibility that there's still lots of improvement to come is especially intriguing. Has the most upside of anyone in this draft from my area. Could turn into an All Star 1st line center. There is some bust risk here, but not much. He barely edges out Niederreiter as #1 on my list just on the basis of higher upside.

Draft Day: Should be top ten, probably somewhere in 6 to 10 range. It wouldn't shock me if sneaks into the top 4 or 5 picks.